Shopping list for 2013 .............

2013 is round the corner and so it is time to prepare your shopping list for the best stocks. We identified 12 top-quality stocks that are expected to give good returns in 2013 


SpiceJet: Preferred Airline for FDI reforms as and when it happens, because of its operational eficiency, Low cost business model works out to yield more on domestic route and healthy expansion plans to explore international route. A strong recovery in yield in the domestic sector and rationalization of its international route should enable SpiceJet post substantially lower losses in FY13 and strong profits in FY14.
Prozone CSC: A unique proposition in real estate: Blend of strong B/s, annuity income generating asset, tier-2 cities land bank and a experienced international partner makes Prozone a niche player with virtually a debt free balance sheet. Fully paid land bank of 17.8msf (10.1msf (PZ share) across six tier-2 cities in India, PZ plans to develop 10msf (6msf PZ share) over next 5 years including 1.3msf of retail mall. Well planed project pipeline for next 3 years which would generate healthy cash flow. CSC’s partnership adds a lot of credibility to the company’s bandwidth and governed business approach Capital Store Centers (CSC) is one of the UK’s most valuable retail asset owners. The company operates 10 of the 25 large retail assets in UK and is valued at ~ 3bn pounds.
Omkar Speciality Chemicals: Expansion inline with expectation: Increasing capacity from 1700 mtpa in FY12 and plans to further increase to 6250 mtpa by FY14 through Brownfield expansion. In addition, the company plans to ramp up the capacity at the sites of Urdhwa Chemicals Private Ltd and Lasa Labs. Exports revenue to boost in FY13 earnings from new products: Omkar Speciality has started focusing more on export oriented segment and planed to launch about 5-6 new molecules during FY12-13.
OnMobile Global: VAS value chain business model: OMGL it is the number one RBT service provider in the world. We believe interactive voice response system and speech recognition technology that OMGL is providing has good scope in utility VAS services. OMGL has already got all the four large operators in India to sign up for its video technology and expects video services to start showing positive results in the next 1-2years period.
Innovative Industries: Innovative has turn out to be one of the emerging leaders in the precision tube industry. Its plan to shift focus to higher margin segments such as Tubes and OCTG would give it an edge over its peers and the recent acquisition helped to reach new heights in global markets. IIL has received a patent for its ‘Cold Pilgering’ technology for a period of 20 years w.e.f April 24, 2009, also IIL has filed for two more new patents. Pilgering process saves cost of power by 80% whereas wastage cost by 7% which would make IIL competitive in pricing & improve its overall profitability.

MCX India: Ready to flag off new equity segment: Newly recognized equity trading platform, MCXStock Exchange (MCX-SX), is set to kick start trading in around 1,000 companies’ shares on November / December 2012 with around 700 members registered as of now. Leadership position: MCX has held on to its market leadership position, with a share of 82- 87% over FY09-12. Supply of technology platform by its parent, Financial Technologies, one of the leading developers of exchange related software and technology, gives MCX a competitive edge that is difficult to replicate
Tech Mahindra: Largest IT solution provider to telecom industry: With its global footprint and presence in more than 31 countries, Tech Mahindra is the largest IT solution provider to global telecommunication companies. As per the latest Voice & Data magazine’s Annual Survey, it leads Indian telecom software services market in FY 12 with 20.9 % market share. Acquisition like Satyam & Comviva will provide business synergies, diversification & scalability. With this Tech Mahindra stands to become leading telecom support service provider in India.
Axis Bank, with its large deposit base and fee income, may be among the private banks best placed to thrive in a rising interest rate scenario. Axis Bank has increased its CASA market share multi-fold over the past nine years (4.6% as of FY2012) on the back of robust branch and ATM expansion. It has opened 400 branches in 2011 & 230 in 2012. Expect an annual addition of 250+branches would lead to a 30-50bp increment in CASA market share every year.

Sterlite Industries: Parent restructuring exercise to trigger: The UK-based Vedanta Resources Plc will merge its Indian firms- Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries- into a single entity Sesa Sterlite Under the merger, three Sesa Goa shares will be issued for five Sterlite shares. Post merger, the combined entity Sesa Sterlite would offer investors best in class resource diversification with top quality assets in zinc and oil. Additional Value to be added through Cairn India: Cairn India would become subsidiary of Sesa Sterlite with effective stake of 58.9%.
Maruti Suzuki India: Increased focus on diesel version to lead future growth: India is a price sensitive market and the sudden upturn in the prices of petrol has soared up the sales volume of diesel variants small cars in the country. In the first half of the current fiscal, the auto makers of the country has seen the diesel to petrol ratio go up from 60:40 to 85:15.
Indraprastha Gas: Robust business model, dominant position in the market and a rapid pace of expansion gives IGL an edge in the market. CNG run vehicles growing at CAGR of 32 % in last 5 years – Buses, Autos, RTV, and Cars/Taxi are main users of CNG. Their number has grown at CAGR of 32 % in the last 5 years. IGL being the sole CNG supplier in Delhi and NCR is benefiting from this demand.
Shasun Pharmaceuticals: Active presence in CRAMS in both API as well as the formulations businesses creates a huge opportunity for it to increase and diversify its revenue base. In addition, the company has several other APIs under development for products, which would turn generic in the next three to five years. Setting up its Greenfield facility in Vizag will enable Shasun Pharma to generate sustainable cash flows over the coming years. Shasun Pharma’s top line grew by 29 percent in FY12. Further Bottom line increase by 102 percent as compared to FY11.

Upside Breakout possible in Gold & Silver, Patterns on Weekly chart

It has been long time I haven’t written about precious metals, But accidentally saw the charts today. I found that COMEX gold and silver is ready for breakout from its descending triangle pattern, in this case I am expecting a positive breakout. Look at the weekly charts of silver as I see its ready for a breakout (may be in few weeks) see below chart.

But gold may take some time for giving a breakout in that pattern.  Look at the gold’s weekly chart below:

Trading position in Gold and Silver:

I will prefer to trade long on both of these precious metals, when the breakout happens. However, I will see when the downward sloping resistance line becomes invalid, at this very moment I will initiate long positions. In silver I see breakout earlier as compared to gold. Lets just wait for breakout, once breakout trade is active I will let you know.

Predictions for the next year ................

• Defaults and slowing credit growth will hurt bank profits. I believe it will impact bank stocks as well, but after seeing violent reactions such as the Fed's QEs or the ECB/JCB action, I can't say that the RBI won't jump to benefit its beloved banks (rather than encouraging new banks and letting the old ones go)
• I'm going on a lark here. Indian stock markets will crash. We might make an intermediate high (say 6,300+ on the Nifty) but I think we crash at some time next year. The trigger, this time, is likely to be internal - such as another silly government program, or large deficits, or the dollar-rupee equation hurting big time. (As compared to external such as a Greek default)
• Gold will hit new highs.
• Some stocks will go up more than 100% in the year. These, I hope, I will catch for at least part of the way.
• India will see job losses in sectors like IT and telecom and BPO and such. The impact will be felt beyond a year, perhaps, but the ball will start to roll and create both political and economic complications.
• The US will get over the "fiscal cliff" but there will be other issues that continue to plague it, with political uncertaintly and the Western economies will start creating walls to keep jobs within their countries, to work through recessions.
• At a personal level, I'll figure out things on the work front. I might transition into full time employment. Or, I might get back into creating a startup in the financial space again. A lot depends on how secure I can make my family's future, a position I intend to address in the next 12 months.
• And finally, I'll only buy stocks or short them after appropriate research. The last year has been very very indisciplined. More details on the site as things get clearer.

Hope you had a great day!

Why is Indian Stock Market rising when Economy is falling?

Economy is at its worst, Rupee’s value is slipping, and estimates of GDP growth are falling by each report.
When all looks so glum then why is Sensex the index of growth booming?

Firstly economy and Sensex are two different things, but a booming Sensex infuses investor confidence in economy. Hence it is important for the Sensex to stay float at all times. Currently we are close to 18k at 17,783, though a fall of marginal 0.38% on Friday; it shows no sign of stopping.

Why?
FII – Foreign Institutional Investors are the answer. Economies all over the world are failing, including the emerging markets like India and China. But there is much more confidence in the Indian market than others.
Because every time there is a chance of slowing down or a big correction takes place, suddenly someone pumps in money (black money) and the Sensex bounces back. If not completely gradually, though faster than it will be if everything was happening due to legitimate reasons. So there is a fair amount of investor confidence. There is nothing called overnight phenomenon without any major fundamental change in economy.
So, we have had a lot of FIIs, $11.5 billion has been pumped in the stock Markets by them since January 2012. Things were basically worse off in other countries. Though off late most of the big stock indices have shown a positive trend like the US’s S&P 500 has gained 7.9% and Ibex-35 of the sour Spain is doing well.
This is because of nothing but a hope, that Euro crisis will be resolved using bailout packages, hence infusing liquidity into the markets. This hope stemmed from the fact that European Central Bank’s governor is keen on saving Euro and had categorically said that he would do “Whatever it takes” for the same. US Federal Reserve may follow suit and propose a bailout package if the economy fails to pick up.
So following the global trend of hope and the local trend of magic (black) money being poured in along with the FIIs, the Sensex (for now) is aiming for the sky.
The need of the hour isn’t just bailout money. Bailout money is like buying a kid chocolate because he scored less.
Though it is necessary to give the industries a little something to stand up again and improve productivity, it is important to re-structure the economy and improve the fundamentals. Otherwise we will have to face the same predicament over and over again.

Stocks SIPs Might be risky ............

Not all financial market innovations benefit investors. When applied to the wrong products or clients, some of them can, in fact, do more harm than good. The concept of systematic investing falls in this category. Used in equity funds, systematic investment plans (SIPs), which allow you to invest in a fund through fixed monthly instalments, work brilliantly. However, the same concept applied to individual stocks may materially peg up the risks to your portfolio.

Stock SIPs

With mutual fund SIPs taking off, many brokers and trading platforms today offer SIPs in individual stocks. They allow you to accumulate a stock by buying it at a daily, weekly or monthly frequency, based on standing instructions. You can set up SIPs based on the number of shares or a specific value to be invested per month.

Why do investors prefer SIPs at all? Consider how SIPs actually help improve returns from equity funds. Most of us invest in equity funds because we believe that they will deliver better returns than most other avenues over the long term. However, the problem is that stocks don't deliver that return in an orderly fashion. As markets are punctuated by runaway bull and bear phases, your entry point into equities makes all the difference to returns. SIPs, by phasing out your investments, help you avoid investing at market peaks and help you benefit from corrections after your start date.

Concentration risks

Having said this, why should SIPs work well for equity funds, but not for individual stocks? That is on account of two factors. One, SIPs in an individual stock may result in portfolio concentration. SIP investments result in your accumulating large exposures to a single asset. A five-year SIP of Rs 5,000/month in an equity fund will add up to investments worth Rs 3 lakh at the end of the period, based on cost alone.

Given that a fund, in turn, holds a diversified portfolio of stocks, this may be an acceptable holding for a Rs 15 lakh portfolio. But what if you bought Rs 5,000 worth of a single stock every month? At the end of the period, a fifth of your portfolio would be invested in it, a risky proposition. Investors may not readily recognise the concentration risks posed by stock-SIPs, because it is easy to lose track of your purchases when you make monthly investments.

The second risk arising from stock-specific SIPs is that you could well be betting on the wrong horse. By automating your investments, SIPs force you to accumulate more and more of an asset without checking back on it. But such an auto-pilot approach to individual stocks can be fraught with risk, especially in today's environment, where a regulatory change, a recalcitrant client or even a blip in the Rupee can cause a drastic shift in a company's fortunes. This logic would apply to a stock that does exceedingly well too. With a SIP, you could end up blindly adding to a stock as its valuations get richer and richer.

Finally, no matter how savvy the investor, stock selection is a game of chance. While some stock choices may turn out extremely well, others may fall flat on their face. Making big bets, month after month, on just 5 or 10 stocks of your own choice can subject your portfolio to considerable damage, if many of your choices turn out to be lemons. With the investments on autopilot, monitoring and rebalancing such a portfolio on an ongoing basis will be an uphill task too.

Work well in portfolios

SIPs, on the other hand, are likely to work quite well if applied to a complete portfolio. Investing a fixed sum every month ensures that you buy more units when markets fall and less when they rise. The real advantage of using SIPs in an equity fund is that you are not buying the same set of stocks every month.

Whether stock prices fall or rise, the fund manager is likely to be closely monitoring the portfolio and replacing stocks at regular intervals. Those who don't put much faith in active managers can take the SIP route to an index fund. In that case, your portfolio returns will be hitched to the fortunes of the broader market and will not rely on luck alone! 

With thanks

money dalal ....

9414941051

I M BACK .....................

Dear all,

Hope all of you well!

Due to some personal anavoidable problems, bleak market conditions and job stress created this much gap between us. Very soon, the blog will be updated with good stuffs suited for this market conditions.

Wish you all the best

Hoping same support from all of you,

With thanks

money dalal ....

9414941051