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Thursday, April 9, 2009

Election risk

My feeling is that as of today most of the institutional investors are assuming there will be a reasonable reform oriented government post election. However, as we go into the election, as some of the opinion poll suggests something to contrary then those kind of things may force investors to book profit. We are up about 25-30% from the bottom and hence people will try to anticipate the future and discount it before it actually happens. So there could be some rally from the current level but definitely the election risk will have to be priced in before the election and not only after the election.

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